Peak Oil is the point in time at which the maximun global petroleum production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline.
Peak Oil is also known as the Hubbert theory, after Dr. Marion Hubbert, a geophysicist working for Shell, who predicted the U.S.'s oil peak would happen by 1970 (which it did - although we were only able to see this in retrospect around 1980). He also predicted a worldwide peak in the early 21st century. "The only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect."
Crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid found in rock formations consisting of hydrocarbons and other organic compounds. Fossil fuels (oil) is created through biogenic processes. Petroleum is the raw material for pharmaceuticals, solvents, fertilizers, pesticides and plastics.
Our economic growth is driven by oil consumption and our entire financial order is predicated on growth. Our high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agriculture and industrial systems on oil will cause post-peak production decline and have negative implications for the global economy. The combination of declining production and increasing domestic consumption leads oil exports to decline faster than oil production is falling. If peak oil production has already occurred or will occur shortly, proactive mitigation may no longer be an option and a chain reaction will stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization. Peak oil is concerned with the growth of consumption.
The total supply of oil will be cut by 50% in 7 years (2015). We use approximately 84 million barrels of oil per day. In 2010 we may need an additional 50 million barrels per day. In the mid 19th century we extracted 50 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel of oil. Today 1-5 barrels of oil are recovered for 1 barrel of oil equivalent: BOE (measure of energy). EROI: Energy Return on Energy Investment.
The Green Revolution increased grain production by 250% between 1950-1984, provided by fossil fuels in the forms of fertilizer (natural gas), pesiticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.
Part of the solution is something no one wants applied to themselves, as everyone seems to believe it is their inalienable right to reproduce. To achieve sustainable economy world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds. Without population decrease, the agriculture crisis will begin in 2020, becoming critical in 2050.
We are mining non-conventional oil because all of the easily extracted oil is gone and our new, desperate measures of extraction from tar sands, heavy oil, oil shale and biofuels are not going to sustain us for long. Bitumen (asphalt), a mix of organic liquids of highly condensed hydrocarbons, is the residual bottom obtained from fractional distillation of crude oil which we currently use for paving roads, waterproofing materials and roofing. We are now upgrading bitumen to crude oil because there ain't much else. There is a study that offers the idea that within 15 years (2023) all the world's oil supply will come from unconventional sources.
ASPO, the association for the study of peak oil and gas, is a network of scientists in global institutions and universities with an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world's production of oil and gas. "All of the easy oil and gas in the world has been found - the hard part is now finding and producing oil from more challenging environments AND as peak oil is concerned with the amount of oil production over time, the amount of recoverable reserves is important as this determines the amount of oil that can potentially be extracted in the future."
The amount of oil discovered each year peaked in 1960 and our reserves peaked in 1980. Reserves are tricky and prone to false information and could actually be speculative resources.
Ten calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every one calorie of food eaten in the U.S.
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